Analysis and market forecast of tinned iron in 2020

      In the first half of 2020, due to the impact of the global epidemic "COVID-19", the world economy has suffered a severe recession, the industrial chain supply chain circulation has been blocked, international trade and investment have shrunk, and the bulk commodity market has been turbulent. China's domestic consumption, investment, and exports have declined, employment pressure has increased significantly, and business operations have become difficult. China's tinplate market prices have also fallen rapidly. In the second half of 2020, how will China’s tinplate market perform? Will it increase strongly? This article attempts to analyze the supply and demand pattern of China’s tinplate and the factors affecting the price of tinplate, and forecast the market in the second half of the year

     　　 In the first half of 2020, the domestic bulk commodity market "turned down", with a decline of nearly 25%, setting the largest half-year decline since bulk commodity prices opened the downward channel in 2013. The price of tinplate has fallen. As of May 31, the market price of tin-plated coil MR0.25*800C was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 17.4% from the same period last year, and the largest drop this year was nearly 27%.

1. Analysis of the price trend of tinplate

  　　 As the new crown pneumonia continues to spread, more and more countries and regions have joined the ranks of closing the country and the city, and people's production and life have been greatly reduced, and the production and operation of enterprises have been seriously affected. Under this circumstance, the global economic growth rate has slowed down, and the price of the tinplate market fluctuates downward. Under the combined effect of the global economic recession, the rapid expansion of China's domestic tinplate production capacity, and the continued high cost of tinplate production, it is expected that the overall operation of China's domestic tinplate market will be weak from 2020 to 2021, and the GDP growth rate will continue to decline. Lower income will result in people not having enough funds to buy necessities, resulting in a slowdown in economic growth. Affected by this, the growth of tinplate demand will slow down, and market prices will generally show a downward trend. At the end of March 2020, the market price of Baosteel's tinned coil MR0.25*800C was 5470 yuan/ton, down 18.4% from the same period last year. Since June of this year, due to China's comprehensive control of the epidemic, enterprises have been able to produce and operate normally; tinplate market prices have shown a rebound trend. As the government is more optimistic about the economic stimulus policy, raw material prices have rebounded sharply, and tin-plated coils have gained cost support and are also showing a rebound trend.

2. China's tinplate supply and demand analysis

◆Analysis of China's tinplate demand

 　　 China's domestic economic growth has slowed down, resulting in continued weakness in tinplate demand. Tinplate is mainly used for the packaging of food, oil and other products in tin boxes, and is a universal renewable and environmentally friendly packaging material. Since the 1990s, with the rapid development of China’s food industry, this has led to the rapid development of food and beverage tin packaging industries. China’s domestic demand for tin plate has also risen sharply. The appearance of tin plate Consumption has increased from 8.8 million tons in 2015 to 10.2 million tons in 2018. However, due to the slowdown of my country's economic growth in recent years, the growth rate of apparent domestic tinplate consumption has also slowed down.

1. Demand situation of tinplate market

 　　Metal packaging demand for tinplate has slowed down. Metal packaging is an important part of China's packaging industry. Among metal packaging, tinplate packaging is the main one. However, with the slowdown of my country's economic growth, the demand for tinplate for metal packaging has also slowed down.

   　　In terms of food tin cans, China's canned food production has shown a rising trend, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2014, the domestic canned food production was 11.64 million tons, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year. The output of canned food in 2016 was 12.56 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. Although China's canned food production is showing a rising trend, the year-on-year growth rate has been declining. It is predicted that the growth rate of the number of tinplate used for food tin packaging will also slow down.

       In terms of beverage cans, the growth rate of China's beverage market demand declined. Especially after “Wang Lo Kat” and “Coca-Cola” used aluminum cans instead of tin cans, the growth rate of domestic demand for three-piece beverage cans in China has declined significantly.

2. Demand situation of tinplate packaging

 At present, the thinning of tin plate in the world has become a trend. For example, Japanese demand for tin plate below 0.28 mm accounts for about 85-90% of the total market. The thickness of tin plate required for high-quality drums and cans in the world is generally 0.14-0.19 mm. The average thickness of China's national tin plate is about 0.23 mm, which not only increases the cost but also causes waste, and the thick tin plate is basically saturated in the market. In the future, the market will have higher and higher requirements for the quality of tin plate, and the demand for high-end tin plate will also increase. Therefore, tin plate enterprises must improve product quality as soon as possible and produce high-quality high-end tin plate board.

◆Analysis of China's tinplate production capacity

 　　 Due to China's containment of the epidemic "COVID-19", China's demand has rapidly increased, and China's domestic tin plate production capacity has rapidly increased. The company's tinplate production capacity will be released quickly from 2020.5-2020.9. In the second half of 2020, the total designed annual production capacity of tinplate manufacturers of more than 100,000 tons in China will exceed 18.8 million tons.

3. China's tinplate import and export analysis

◆Analysis of China's tinplate imports

 　　 The quantity and average price of China's imported tinplate are decreasing year by year. With the development of domestic tinplate production in China, the self-sufficiency rate of tinplate is gradually increasing, and the import volume of tinplate is decreasing year by year. From January to July 2019, China imported 28,000 tons of tinplate (tinned iron, chrome-plated iron), a year-on-year decrease of 35.2%. The average price of China's imported tinplate was US$634/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%. Although China's tinplate imports have been declining year by year, in 2016, domestic imports of tinplate were 126,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.7%. Among them, 41,300 tons of chromium-plated iron were imported, a sharp increase of 662.6% year-on-year, and the average import price was US$751.5/ton, a sharp drop of 25% year-on-year. Weakness in the international tinplate market.

   　　 The Netherlands, South Korea, and Japan are the main importers of Chinese tinplate. In 2019, China imported 20,218 tons of tinplate from the Netherlands, accounting for 38.5% of total imports; 75.43 million tons of tinplate from South Korea, accounting for 22.3% of total imports; 4504 tons of tinplate from Japan, accounting for 13.6% of total imports.

◆Analysis of China's tinplate exports

 　　 As China’s domestic epidemic was brought under control from May to August this year, companies in European and American countries affected by the second wave of the epidemic were unable to start operations and production was affected; the average export price of tinplate in China has gradually increased, and the export volume has gradually increased. As a large number of tinplate production equipment has been built and put into operation, China's domestic production has begun to grow rapidly, and the export volume has begun to gradually increase, which has greatly improved the domestic tinplate self-sufficiency rate, reaching 86.7% by 2018. From January to July 2019, domestic exports of tinplate (tin plated iron, chromium plated iron) totaled 328,000 tons, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year.

     　　Italy, Malaysia and Thailand are the main exporters of Chinese tinplate. In 2019, China exported 279,000 tons of tinplate to Italy, accounting for 14.6% of total exports; China exported 154,000 tons to Thailand, accounting for 9.17% of total exports.

   　　 This year, China was the first to control the epidemic, enterprises were able to produce and operate normally, and the net export of tinplate has gradually increased. As the global economy stabilizes and recovers, the demand for tinplate in foreign markets has risen, especially in Southeast Asian countries. China's net exports of tinplate will increase year by year.

  4. China's tinplate industry supply and demand and market forecast for the second half of 2020

◆Pre-judgment of China's tinplate supply and demand in the second half of 2020

 　　 With the concentrated release of new tinplate production capacity that China has controlled "COVID-19" companies, the market demand has greatly increased. China Baosteel, China Wuhan Iron and Steel, and China Shougang's production equipment have already started rolling, and China's domestic new tin-plated steel production capacity is concentrated to release market demand and balance. In the second half of the year, an additional capacity of 160,000 tons is expected. It is expected to reach production in the fourth quarter of last year. The downstream demand for tinplate in China continues to increase, the overall domestic economy in China is growing, and the demand for tinplate continues to increase. Overall, the supply and demand balance of the tinplate market,

 ◆Tinplate price forecast analysis

  　　 At present, the world, especially the United States, Europe and the United States, and India are still under the influence of the COVID-19 crisis. The production capacity of steel, iron ore, crude oil and other commodities is still declining. We believe that under the condition of little change in supply and demand, the price of tinplate is mainly based on the "cost pricing model", so the raw materials of tinplate have a greater impact on its price, and the price of tinplate (tinplate) has been relatively stable recently.